An HMDP-MPC Decision-making Framework with Adaptive Safety Margins and Hysteresis for Autonomous Driving

Abstract

This paper presents a unified decision-making framework that integrates Hybrid Markov Decision Processes (HMDPs) with Model Predictive Control (MPC), augmented by velocity-dependent safety margins and a prediction-aware hysteresis mechanism. Both the ego and surrounding vehicles are modeled as HMDPs, allowing discrete maneuver transition and kinematic evolution to be jointly considered within the MPC optimization. Safety margins derived from the Intelligent Driver Model (IDM) adapt to traffic context but vary with speed, which can cause oscillatory decisions and velocity fluctuations. To mitigate this, we propose a frozen-release hysteresis mechanism with distinct trigger and release thresholds, effectively enlarging the reaction buffer and suppressing oscillations. Decision continuity is further safeguarded by a two-layer recovery scheme: a global bounded relaxation tied to IDM margins and a deterministic fallback policy. The framework is evaluated through a case study, an ablation against a no-hysteresis baseline, and largescale randomized experiments across 18 traffic settings. Across 8,050 trials, it achieves a collision rate of only 0.05%, with 98.77% of decisions resolved by nominal MPC and minimal reliance on relaxation or fallback. These results demonstrate the robustness and adaptability of the proposed decision-making framework in heterogeneous traffic conditions.