Kinematic Discriminants of Deceleration Behavior Modes in Car-Following: Evidence from NGSIM Trajectory Data

摘要

Gap-closing rate and visual looming swap discriminative dominance depending on deceleration intensity - a finding that reconciles a long-standing conflict in the car-following literature and challenges spacing-centered assumptions in traditional driver behavior models. This study presents a two-stage analytical framework that distinguishes between information availability (kinematic variables measurable in the environment) and information utilization (variables that demonstrably separate driver behavioral patterns), applied to 1,060,119 valid car-following observations from the NGSIM trajectory dataset (2,932 vehicles). Six kinematic features are extracted, and deceleration events are detected under two threshold conditions (-0.5 m/s^2 and -0.3 m/s^2). K-means clustering identifies behavioral modes, and one-way ANOVA with eta-squared effect sizes ranks each feature's discriminative power. Three key findings emerge: (1) threshold selection fundamentally shapes behavioral inference - the stricter threshold yields three interpretable modes while the permissive threshold collapses these to two; (2) hard braking prioritizes gap-closing rate (eta^2 = 0.715) while moderate braking emphasizes visual looming (eta^2 = 0.574); and (3) spacing headway is negligible (eta^2 <= 0.014) across both thresholds. These findings provide empirically grounded candidates for perceptual cue prioritization and have direct implications for ADAS warning system design and autonomous vehicle control.