Robots and Crime

Abstract

Leveraging county-level variation in exposure to industry-specific foreign-based robotics shocks, this study is the first to explore the relationship between U.S. robotics expansions and crime.Instrumental variables estimates show that a 10 percent increase in robotics exposure led to a 0.2 to 0.3 percent increase in property crime arrests.In contrast, we find little evidence of a relationship between robotics expansions and violent crime.Our estimates are consistent with robotics-induced declines in employment and earnings among low-skilled manufacturing workers.A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that during the period over which robotics exposure induced adverse employment effects, such exposure generated approximately $322 million (2024 $) in additional crime costs nationally.