Positive externalities of an epidemic: The case of the coronavirus (COVID‐19) in China

摘要

The outbreak of deadly coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) which started in late December 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei, China has raised major concerns among academics, researchers, and policymakers on its likely potential effects on the health of the Chinese economy and the world at large. Touted as the second-largest economy in the world with a nominal gross domestic product (GDP) and GDP growth rate of US$13.9 trillion and 6.1%, respectively, as at 2019 (Figure 1)1 and projected to take over the number one spot as the largest economy, it is clear that “when China sneezes, the rest of the world catches cold.” Undisputedly, the COVID-19 has immensely dented global economies as shown by indicators from the various market and reports from factories in China and other parts of the world. For instance, the world's largest producer of car parts, Robert Bosch GmbH is reported to have shut down two factories which employed a little over 800 people in Wuhan.2 Honda Motors Co, Ltd, and Nissan Motor Co, Ltd, have also shut down their factory in Wuhan. There has been a fall in global stock prices (Figure 2)3 as well as oil price all due to quarantines, cancelation of flights by many airlines, factories shut down, and so forth. This has reduced demand for oil drastically given that China is the second largest consumer of oil.4 Given the unfortunate spread of COVID-19 across the borders of China into other countries, the negative effects have multiplied. However, amidst these woes, China's quest to contain the spread of the disease and ultimately find its cure has resulted in some positive spillovers worth discussing. Section 2 will highlight some positive lights of the COVID-19. Compared to the same period as last year, the lockdown is estimated to have reduced transportation by 50%.5 With mobility greatly affected due to the lockdown, people, therefore, got confined to their rooms making access to basic goods and services a bit difficult. Online services became the alternative for many dwellers, particularly in Wuhan. This alternative also came with some hurdles, as goods ordered took longer than expected to arrive. Moreover, newer policies barred door-to-door delivery services in some communities. Thus, individuals had to pick their ordered items at the community entrance further increasing their chances of contracting the virus. This could be described as inefficiency in the delivery market. Autonomous vehicles (AVs) or self-driving cars provided by companies such as JD and Meitan came in to solve this market failure as it also helps to reduce the spread of the virus. Ordered goods were now loaded unto AVs at specified stations and then delivered to their destination within the communities.6 JD's AVs which operated in Wuhan, for instance, delivered 24 smaller packages of orders per trip at a travel speed of 15 km/h. The identification of symptoms, finding newer treatments, and tracking the spread of the disease became a herculean task for authorities. For instance, some health professionals although in protective gear who came into contact with patients ended up contracting the disease. Artificial intelligence powering futuristic technologies came in to resolve these issues. Interactions made via robots made treatment of sick patients easier, reduced disease transmission, and saved health workers time on simple tasks. Robots were now being used in communicating with isolated patients, disinfecting rooms, taking vital statistics, and delivering medications. In addition, meal delivery robots provided by Keenon Robotics reached people in hospitals and quarantine zones in more than 40 cities.7 People who might be sick or not wearing masks, walking in open spaces were detected and alerted via powerful surveillance technologies, such as facial recognition enabled cameras and drones. Although potentially unreliable, infrared thermometers or thermometer guns increasingly become common in China, where people's temperatures were regularly checked by he