Advanced Capacity Accreditation of Future Energy System Resources with Deep Uncertainties

摘要

The electric power sector has seen an increased penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs) that could strain the system reliability due to their inherent uncertainties in availability and controllability. Effective load carrying capability (ELCC) is widely used to quantify the reliability contributions of these RESs. However, existing ELCC methods can over- or under-estimate their contributions and often neglect or simplify other critical factors such as transmission constraints and evolving climate trends, leading to inaccurate capacity credit (CC) allocations and inefficient reliability procurement in capacity markets. To address these limitations, this paper proposes TRACED (TRansmission And Climate Enhanced Delta) -- an advanced capacity accreditation approach that integrates transmission constraints and climate-adjusted system conditions into a Delta ELCC evaluation. Case studies on a modified IEEE-118 bus system with high RES and energy storage penetrations demonstrate that TRACED produces portfolio-consistent CC allocations by capturing resource interactions and avoiding the double-counting of shared reliability benefits inherent in marginal ELCC, which may otherwise lead to under-procurement of reliability resources. Results further demonstrate that transmission congestion and evolving climate trends have mutual impacts on CC allocation, justifying their necessary integration into TRACED.