Deployment-Efficient Short-Term Load Forecasting in AI Data Centers via Sequence-to-Point Knowledge Distillation

Abstract

Accurately forecasting the bursty and non-stationary power demand of AI data centers has become increasingly important, as abrupt workload-driven variations at the GPU-node level can affect real-time operational efficiency, power management, and grid-data center coordination. However, high-capacity forecasting models are often difficult to deploy at scale because of their memory and latency requirements, while lightweight predictors may fail to capture short-horizon temporal dynamics. To address this accuracy-deployment tradeoff, this paper proposes a deployment-efficient knowledge distillation framework for short-term load forecasting in AI data centers. The proposed framework first trains a high-capacity sequence teacher model for multi-step load trajectory prediction, where residual learning is used to improve robustness under non-stationary operating conditions. A lightweight point-wise student model is then developed for low-latency rolling inference using a compact neural network architecture. To transfer temporal knowledge from the teacher to the student, a sequence-to-point distillation strategy is introduced by aligning near-term predictive behavior and temporally pooled representations. Case studies on the MIT Supercloud dataset demonstrate that the proposed student model improves forecasting accuracy over recent deep learning baselines while reducing the deployment footprint by over 10x in parameter memory and model size.