Mobility Safe Adaptive Reserve Certification for Electric Vehicle Hydrogen Bus and Building Resilience Hubs

摘要

Zero-emission mobility depots are becoming resilience assets because one site can host EV charging, hydrogen-bus operation, stationary conversion equipment, and nearby critical-building backup. The key question is not raw outage export capacity: hydrogen exported to buildings can strand buses, EV availability is stochastic, and building demand shifts seasonally. We introduce a mobility-safe reserve certification framework for a coupled EV, hydrogen-bus, and critical-building hub. It combines a physics-hybrid universal differential equation building-load twin, one-sided split conformal reserve calibration, adaptive conformal inference for seasonal drift, and a mobility-first scheduling rule that protects post-event bus service before assigning hydrogen to buildings. Evaluation uses 495,221 real EV charging sessions across eight regions, AC Transit GTFS-derived hydrogen-bus service days, and EnergyPlus 25.2 simulations under real TMY3 weather. Across 66,816 held-out outage scenarios, a mobility-blind hydrogen-export policy served 39.2\% of building demand but protected buses in 0\% of cases and caused a 426.7 kg mean bus-hydrogen shortfall. A nominal mean-resource promise delivered only 45.4\% of commitments. The certified mobility-first policy was the only tested policy to achieve 100\% commitment delivery, 100\% bus protection, and zero mean bus-hydrogen shortfall, while serving 20.5\% of critical-building demand. Under a summer-to-winter load shift, adaptive conformal inference raised late-period empirical coverage from 0.687 to 0.831 and reached 0.891 overall coverage against a 0.90 target with lower mean reserve than static split conformal. Across 12 building/seed drift runs, it kept low late-coverage variability and the lowest mean reserve. These results show that resilience value in shared zero-emission hubs depends on service-aware certification, not raw export capacity alone.