An options view of robot performance parameters in a dynamic environment

Abstract

A potential robot user is faced with a large number of robots to select from. The selection decision is complex because robot performance is specified by a large number of time-varying parameters. Product design parameters are changing over time, robot technology is improving, and demand is uncertain. Existing selection models do not take into account trends in product design such as the tightening of product tolerances, and trends in robot technology such as improvements in repeatability. We propose using an options model for robot selection, which in turn gives the decision-maker the option of replacing the selected robot with a better one during the life of products with uncertain demand. This replacement option is important when the pace of technological improvement is fast. The model takes into account the tightening of product tolerances and the interaction of these tolerances with robot specifications to determine product quality. The model is illustrated using an actual set of robots and the options model is shown to result in a different selection from the traditional net present value criteria advocated in previous work.