Global Energy Trajectories: Innovation-Driven Pathways to Future Development

摘要

In recent years, experts have associated forecasts of global energy consumption with energy transitions. This paper presents the research results of the paths and trajectories of the global transformations of world energy, including demographic, technological, energy, transport, and communication changes. After demonstrating the long-term trends in global energy consumption, fossil and renewable energy sources, and nuclear energy using neuroforecasting methods, this study explains global demographic development and its relationship with global innovation and technological processes as explained by the flow of global patent applications. The relationship between energy transition and the previously mentioned two factors is also justified based on the trajectories developed by the neural network forecasting. By leveraging the fundamental laws of energy conservation, robust patterns in the evolution and development of global energy could be identified. It is demonstrated that mankind has entered the era of four closely interconnected global transitions: demographic, energy, technological, and political–economic, all at once. According to the results, civilizational changes are currently taking place in global energy advancement, indicating an energy transition to a new quality of energy development. The permanent growth patterns of the energy density of energy sources used and their impact on labor productivity and the speed of movement of people and goods in the economy are also discussed. Finally, the contour of future developments in energy technologies is determined. It is also forecast that future energy technologies are expected to be largely associated with the exploration of outer space, development of robotics, and the expansion of artificial intelligence capabilities.