The substitution of labor

摘要

Artificial intelligence, machine learning (a subcategory of AI), and robotics are three technologies that perform an increasingly wider variety of routine and even non-routine job tasks. This chapter provides an overview of digitalization and automation along with the three underlying technologies and explores the potential of these technologies to replace human capabilities in the workplace. Subsequently, it discusses a set of factors beyond technological feasibility that influence the pace and scope of job automation. Some of the chapter’s key findings include the following: (1) The majority of jobs will be affected by the automation of individual activities, but only a few have the potential to be completely substituted; (2) the automation potential for non-routine tasks seems to remain limited, especially for tasks involving autonomous mobility, creativity, problem-solving and complex communication; (3) the nature of jobs will change as mundane tasks will be substituted and people will work more closely together with machines; and (4) industries that have a large potential for labor substitution are food and accommodation services, transportation and warehousing, retail trade, wholesale trade and manufacturing.