Emerging Technologies and Exponential Change: Implications for Army Transformation

摘要

Revolutionary technological change on an exponentially growing scale is already here and mandates that the Army institute a continuous transformation process that includes all areas of doctrine, training, leadership, organization, and technology. The continuing wave of technological change is different from even the information technology revolution of the 1990s in two ways. First, it is a vastly more profound transformation due to the synergy of three emerging technologies: bio-engineering, nano-engineering, and robotics and artificial intelligence. Second, it is a revolution that will occur at a speed never seen before. In only the past couple of decades has society begun to comprehend and contemplate the implications of the apparent accelerating pace of change. This progress is not without its costs. Technological innovation is the primary cause of a growing stress in society, where the basic human desire for the comfort of permanence is in direct opposition to a deep need to control and transform the environment in the service of humanity. Technological innovation continually remakes the world and is central to the economic process and cultural beliefs-commonly labeled progress-that drive modern civilization. Yet, it is this need for progress that is the source of the relentless destabilization and disorder experienced by individuals, institutions, governments, and societies. 1 The purpose of this article is to investigate three questions that are critical to the future of the US Army. First, what can be anticipated regarding the nature and pace of future technological change? Second, why is it important for the Army to continuously transform itself in response to increasingly rapid change?