Simplification Ad Absurdum? Revisiting Gas Flow Modeling for Integrated Energy System Planning

摘要

This paper analyzes the implications of simplified pipeline gas flow models for integrated energy system planning. A case study of an integrated power-hydrogen expansion planning problem shows that simplifying pressure-flow relationships and gas dynamics can lead to expansion plans that incur substantial regret when evaluated under a more realistic dynamic gas flow model -- due to suboptimal system expansion, operation, and non-supplied hydrogen. Numerical experiments show that planning under the highly simplified transport and transport-linepack models -- commonly used in expansion studies -- can result in regret exceeding several thousand percent and yield expansion plans that lack robustness across demand levels. Planning under steady-state conditions partially mitigates these effects, but still leaves significant cost-reduction potential untapped compared to dynamic planning due to neglected linepack flexibility. Developing efficient solution algorithms for the dynamic model is a promising direction for future research.