Stochastic Delayed Dynamics of Rumor Propagation with Awareness and Fact-Checking

摘要

This paper presents a stochastic delayed differential model for rumor propagation during infodemic that incorporates human behavioral response, public skepticism and fact-checking mechanisms. A discrete time delay is introduced to model natural lags in information processing and institutional response. Additionally, we adopt additive stochastic perturbations to model random fluctuations in social interaction and exposure. We present a rigorous stability analysis of the proposed rumor transmission model and derive convergence guarantees under reproduction number conditions. We also validate the model by numerical simulations and analyze the outbreak severity and quantify uncertainty under variable information processing delays. The results highlight the importance of timely awareness and fact-checking interventions for mitigating misinformation spread during pandemics