Grid-Supporting Equipment Supply Chains Constrain the Feasible Pace of Power System Expansion

摘要

Power system expansion depends on the equipment required to connect, convert, regulate, and condition electricity, yet grid-supporting equipment (GSE) is rarely modeled as an explicit constraint. We develop a framework integrating dynamic stock-flow modeling, bill-of-materials accounting, multi-regional supply-use analysis, and expansion optimization to quantify GSE deployment requirements and upstream material dependence. Because manufacturing data are often fragmented or proprietary, we use critical material requirements as a physically grounded proxy for GSE supply constraints. In a U.S. case study, GSE shortages reach 269.6--274.1 GVA (28.5%--28.6%) by 2030 under high-growth conditions. Copper becomes fully binding, with steel and nickel forming additional constraints. Trade disruption intensifies shortages, while grid-enhancing technologies provide limited relief. These results show that grid expansion depends on the timely manufacturability, replacement, and material support of GSE, motivating planning frameworks that explicitly incorporate deliverability, supply chain exposure, and resilience strategies.