Demand modelling and forecasting.

Abstract

An examination is presented of the various forecasting methods used in the tourist industry. The main methods described are: Delphi and jury of executive opinion; cross impact analysis; probability forecasting; and econometric forecasting. 25 possible scenarios for tourism developments upto 2030 are identified and tested on 25 tourism experts in Valencia, Spain, June 1992. The scenarios include the effects of tourism superstructure, robotics, artificial intelligence, recreation and transportation.