Probabilistic State Estimation of Timed Probabilistic Discrete Event Systems via Artificial Neural Networks [Draft Version]

Abstract

This paper is about the state estimation of timed probabilistic discrete event systems. The main contribution is to propose general procedures for developing state estimation approaches based on artificial neural networks. It is assumed that no formal model of the system exists but a data set is available, which contains the history of the timed behaviour of the systems. This dataset will be exploited to develop a neural network model that uses both logical and temporal information gathered during the functioning of the system as inputs and provides the state probability vector as output. Two main approaches are successively proposed (i) state estimation of timed probabilistic discrete event systems over observations: in this case the state estimate is reconstructed at the occurrence of each new observation; (ii) state estimation of timed probabilistic discrete event systems over time: in this case the state estimate is reconstructed at each clock time increment. For each approach, the paper outlines the process of data preprocessing, model building and implementation. This paper not only proposes groundbreaking approaches but also opens the door to further exploitation of artificial neural networks for the benefit of discrete event systems.