Exploring Uncertainty Propagation in Coupled Hydrologic and Hydrodynamic Systems via Distribution-Agnostic State Space Analysis

Abstract

Accurate overland runoff and infiltration predictions are critical for effective water resources management, in particular for urban flood management. However, the inherent uncertainty in rainfall patterns, soil properties, and initial conditions makes reliable flood forecasting a challenging task. This paper presents a framework for quantifying the impact of these uncertainties on hydrologic and hydrodynamic simulations via a state space approach based on a differential algebraic equation (DAE) formulation that couples surface and subsurface constraints with the governing dynamics. Under this formulation, the complex interactions between overland flow and infiltration dynamics are captured in realtime. To account for uncertainty in inputs and parameters, the proposed framework quantifies and propagates these uncertainties through the DAE model formulation under partial measurements. The effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated through a series of numerical experiments on synthetic and real world catchments, highlighting its ability to provide probabilistic estimates of watershed state conditions while accounting for uncertainty. An important aspect of the proposed methods is that they are distribution-agnostic, i.e., they only require covariances of uncertainty and not specific types of distributions. The proposed framework is further validated against Monte Carlo (MC) ensemble simulations while providing probabilistic state estimates for measured and unmeasured watershed states under partial gauging.