Beyond ADE and FDE: A Comprehensive Evaluation Framework for Safety-Critical Prediction in Multi-Agent Autonomous Driving Scenarios

Abstract

Current evaluation methods for autonomous driving prediction models rely heavily on simplistic metrics such as Average Displacement Error (ADE) and Final Displacement Error (FDE). While these metrics offer basic performance assessments, they fail to capture the nuanced behavior of prediction modules under complex, interactive, and safety-critical driving scenarios. For instance, existing benchmarks do not distinguish the influence of nearby versus distant agents, nor systematically test model robustness across varying multi-agent interactions. This paper addresses this critical gap by proposing a novel testing framework that evaluates prediction performance under diverse scene structures, saying, map context, agent density and spatial distribution. Through extensive empirical analysis, we quantify the differential impact of agent proximity on target trajectory prediction and identify scenario-specific failure cases that are not exposed by traditional metrics. Our findings highlight key vulnerabilities in current state-of-the-art prediction models and demonstrate the importance of scenario-aware evaluation. The proposed framework lays the groundwork for rigorous, safety-driven prediction validation, contributing significantly to the identification of failure-prone corner cases and the development of robust, certifiable prediction systems for autonomous vehicles.