Design of policy digital twins incorporating multi-level agent based modelling

摘要

Digital twins are used across many industries to enable better decision making. However, while policy makers at all levels (including city, national and supranational scales) have expressed a desire to integrate digital twins into their workflows, this adoption has been slow to materialise. In this paper, we discuss the key issues associated with policy digital twins, and the ways in which they differ from, and are similar to, their counterparts in other areas. We describe how multi-level agent based modelling can be used within policy digital twins to include the effects of human behaviours on outcomes; an aspect that is often largely overlooked. We also describe how digital twins can be designed for policy use cases, and present as a case study the design of a policy digital twin incorporating multi-level agent based modelling to aid a UK city council (local authority) in delivering energy transition policy. After describing both the design method used and the resultant digital twin, we discuss the effectiveness of both, as well as how the ways in which different contexts might shape the future architecture of the digital twin.