<i>Pharmacy Forecast Australia 2022</i>: key findings

摘要

Pharmacy Forecast Australia is an annual, strategic thought leadership piece on the emerging trends and phenomena projected to impact pharmacy practice and the health of Australian patients over the next 5 years (2022–2027). The purpose of Pharmacy Forecast Australia 2022 is to encourage and support active and deliberate strategic planning in hospitals and health systems. It is intended to stimulate thinking and discussion, providing a starting point for individuals and teams who wish to proactively position themselves for potential future events and trends rather than be reactive when they occur. This special report presents an abridged version of Pharmacy Forecast Australia 2022, focusing on the key findings and recommendations within each of the six themes, to assist pharmacy and health system leaders among the Journal of Pharmacy Practice and Research's readership in this effort. The 2022 report is divided into six themes: environmental sustainability; future workforce; patient-centred care; technology; funding models; and workforce wellbeing. Through analysis and recommendations, the theme leads provide advice and guidance on how to approach issues pertinent to our times such as sustainably reducing our carbon footprint; fostering an effective, diverse, engaged and expert pharmacy workforce into the future; reorienting strategy to fortify research, embed pharmacogenetics and put the patient at the centre of care; harnessing secure technology to improve access to medicines; ensuring funding reforms prioritise safe and timely patient care; and supporting workforce wellbeing through structured training and appreciation of individual and team needs. In its second year in Australia, the method used to develop Pharmacy Forecast Australia 2022 continued to draw on concepts described in James Surowiecki's book The Wisdom of Crowds.1 According to Surowiecki, the collective opinions of ‘wise crowds’ — groups of diverse individuals in which each participant's input is provided independently, drawing from their own locally informed points of view — can be more informative than the opinion of any individual participant. The Pharmacy Forecast Advisory Committee (see the full membership list in the Acknowledgements) began developing the survey by engaging in a series of workshops to identify and interrogate key issues and concerns they believed would influence health-system pharmacy in the coming 5 years, further informed by insight from the policy and advocacy activities of the Society of Hospital Pharmacists of Australia (SHPA). That list was then expanded and refined through an iterative process, resulting in a final set of six themes, each with seven focused topics on which the survey was built. Each of the 42 survey items was written to explore the selected themes in greater detail. Survey respondents — Forecast Panellists (FPs) — were nominated and selected by the advisory committee. Nominations were limited to individuals known to have expertise in health-system pharmacy, knowledge of trends and new developments in the field, and the ability to think analytically about the future. The forecast survey instructed FPs to read each of the 42 scenarios presented in survey items and consider the likelihood that those scenarios would occur in the next 5 years. They were asked to base their responses on their first-hand knowledge of current conditions in their region, not on their understanding of national circumstances, and provide a top-of-mind response regarding the likelihood of those conditions being very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely or very unlikely to occur. Responses were received from 96 FPs (77% response rate). Representation was captured from across all Australian states and territories, with smaller jurisdictions slightly overrepresented proportional to population share: Victoria (24%) and New South Wales (NSW) (21%), followed by Queensland (19%), South Australia (SA) and Western Australia (WA) (9%), Tasmania (7