The Changing Nature of Work

摘要

Examines three possible impacts of technology on jobs, including (1) robots replacing workers; (2) robots enhancing worker productivity; or (3) technology creating jobs as it shapes demand for new goods and services. These disparate effects of technology render economic predictions of technology-induced job losses useless. Predictions sensationalize the impact of technology and stir fears, especially among middle-skill workers in routine jobs. Technology does change the demand for skills. Since 2001, the share of employment in occupations heavy in nonroutine cognitive and sociobehavioral skills has increased from 19 to 23 percent in emerging economies and from 33 to 41 percent in advanced economies. The pace of innovation will determine whether new sectors or tasks emerge to counterbalance the decline of old sectors and routine jobs as technology costs decline. Meanwhile, whether the cost of labor remains low in emerging economies in relation to capital will determine whether firms choose to automate production or move elsewhere.