Rebound Effects Caused by Artificial Intelligence and Automation in Private Life and Industry

摘要

Many tasks in a modern household are performed by machines, e.g., a dishwasher or a vacuum cleaner, and in the near future most household tasks will be performed by smart service robots. This will relieve the residents, who in turn can enjoy their free time. This newly gained free time will turn out to cause the so-called spare time rebound effect due to more resource consumption. We roughly quantify this rebound effect and propose a CO2-budget model to reduce or even avoid it. In modern industry, automation and AI are taking over work from humans, leading to higher productivity of the company as a whole. This is the main reason for economic growth, which leads to environmental problems due to higher consumption of natural resources. We show that, even though the effects of automation at home and in the industry are different (free time versus higher productivity), in the end they both lead to more resource consumption and environmental pollution. We discuss possible solutions to this problem, such as carbon taxes, emissions trading systems, and a carbon budget.