An Assessment of the UK Government Clean Energy Strategy for the Year 2030

摘要

In 2024, the UK Government made two striking announcements on its plans to decarbonise the energy system; it pledged GBP22 billion to establish carbon capture and storage hubs on Teesside and Merseyside and released the Clean Power 2030 Action Plan. This paper questions the validity of both plans, arguing that they do not take adequate account of the consequences of the highly variable nature of wind and solar generations. Using dynamic models of future UK electricity systems which are designed to take account of these variabilities, it is shown that the Clean Power 2030 Action Plan overestimates the ability of wind and solar generations to decarbonise the electricity system as they increase in size relative to the demand of the electricity system. More importantly, the dynamic models show that most of the achievable decarbonization is the result of increasing wind generation from the current level of around 10 GW to around 20 GW. Increasing wind generation to only 20 GW, rather than to 30 GW as proposed in the Action Plan, should halve the proposed cost, a saving of perhaps GBP 120 billion, with little disbenefit in terms of reduced decarbonization. Furthermore, the dynamic modelling shows that UK gas storage capacity of 7.5 winter days looks hopeless inadequate in comparison with the storage capacities deemed necessary by its continental neighbors. Concern is expressed that a consequence of the Climate Change Act of 2008 requiring the UK to meet arbitrary decarbonization targets is leading government advisors to propose several unproven and therefore highly risky technological solutions.