Game-theoretic Social Distancing in Competitive Bi-Virus SIS Epidemics

摘要

Numerous elements drive the spread of infectious diseases in complex real-world networks. Of particular interest is social behaviors that evolve in tandem with the spread of disease. Moreover, recent studies highlight the importance of understanding how multiple strains spread simultaneously through a population (e.g. Delta and Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2). In this paper, we propose a bi-virus SIS epidemic model coupled with a game-theoretic social distancing behavior model. The behaviors are governed by replicator equations from evolutionary game theory. The prevalence of each strain impacts the choice of an individual to social distance, and, in turn, their behavior affects the spread of each virus in the SIS model. Our analysis identifies equilibria of the system and their local stability properties, which reveal several isolated fixed points with varying levels of social distancing. We find that endemic co-existence is possible only when the reproduction numbers of both strains are equal. Assuming the reproduction number for each virus is the same, we identify suitable parameter regimes that give rise to lines of coexistence equilibria. Moreover, we also identify conditions for local exponential stability of said lines of equilibria. We illustrate our findings with several numerical simulations.