Overtourism to Equilibrium: A System Dynamics & Multi-Objective Model for Sustainable Destinations

摘要

Overtourism poses severe challenges to popular destinations worldwide, threatening natural environments and local communities. This paper develops a decision-making model integrating system dynamics with multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (NSGA-II) to balance economic returns, environmental protection, and social satisfaction. We collect multi-source data from 2008-2024 including visitor arrivals (up to 3.1M), government revenue/expenditure (up to $10.3M), glacier retreat (220-350 ft), CO2 emissions (77K-105K tons), and social satisfaction (0.29-0.48), and establish a dynamic system with four modules: tourist behavior, government finance, environmental evolution, and social well-being. We optimize three objectives via NSGA-II: cumulative net revenue, final environmental index, and final social satisfaction. Experiments on Juneau show optimal solutions yield net revenue up to $1.64B with environmental index 0.93 and social satisfaction 0.86. Extending to Iceland reveals Pareto fronts spanning revenues $150M-$200M, environment indices up to 0.92, and social satisfaction above 0.80. Sobol and Morris sensitivity analyses indicate carbon fees and price elasticity account for over 60% of environmental outcome variance, while capacity limits explain around 90% of net revenue variability. Scenario simulations demonstrate how capacity limits and dynamic pricing on crowded attractions, combined with marketing and infrastructure investment in lesser-known sites, mitigate congestion and enhance sustainability. This work contributes: (i) an integrated system-dynamics and NSGA-II framework for sustainable tourism management; (ii) demonstrated portability via case studies on Juneau and Iceland; and (iii) global sensitivity analysis highlighting influential policy levers for decision makers.