Managing the Mismatch: The Role of Flexibility on the Path to a Carbon-Neutral Energy System

摘要

A rapid expansion of system flexibility is essential to integrate increasing shares of renewable energy into future energy systems. However, flexibility needs and technology-specific contributions to flexibility remain poorly quantified in energy system modelling. Existing methods are not widely applied, leaving key questions unanswered: which flexibility technologies are critical for climate neutrality, and what are the cost implications of alternative deployment strategies? To address this gap, we apply a correlation-based flexibility metric to a high-resolution, sector-coupled model of the German energy system, covering its transformation towards climate neutrality. For our default scenario, we find that daily flexibility needs increase by a factor of 3.7 between 2025 and 2045, driven primarily by the expansion of solar PV. By 2045, stationary batteries provide 38% of daily flexibility, while flexible electric vehicle charging contributes 30%. Systems with constrained flexibility increase system costs by 6.9%, electricity prices by 14 EUR/MWh and trigger 47% higher hydrogen and e-fuel imports compared to an unconstrained system in 2045. In contrast, scenarios with high shares of flexible electric vehicle charging, vehicle-to-grid, and industrial demand-side management achieve system cost reductions of 3.3%, while also reducing import dependence. Higher flexibility also reduces electricity price ranges, decreases average electricity prices by 3 EUR/MWh, and reduces backup capacity by 22% (22 GW). Overall, our results highlight the decisive role of specific flexibility technologies in achieving cost-efficient and energy-secure climate-neutral energy systems, providing quantitative guidance for policy and investment decisions.