Orbital Data Centers: Spacecraft Constraints and Economic Viability

摘要

Orbital data centers are being evaluated as solar-powered compute constellations and relay-integrated processing platforms. Their feasibility is not set by orbital solar flux alone, but by simultaneous closure of photovoltaic generation, eclipse recharge, radiative heat rejection, sustained space-to-ground communications, utilization, replacement cadence, and delivered compute-years over finite mission life. This paper derives necessary cluster-level competitiveness conditions using delivered information-technology (IT) electrical power $P_{\rm IT}$, deployed mass per delivered IT power $m_{\rm kW}$ in kg/kW, communication intensity $Γ=D_{\rm sg}/E_{\rm IT}$, sustained communication ceiling $Γ_{\max}$, effective utilization $U_{\rm eff}$, and lifetime penalty $Π_{\rm life}$. For a representative $P_{\rm IT}$=1 MW high-sunlight anchor, the base case gives beginning-of-life photovoltaic area $A^{\rm BOL}_{\rm PV}=5.64 \times 10^3 {\rm m}^2$, radiator area $A_{\rm rad}=2.50 \times 10^3 {\rm m^2}$, and 29.4 kg/kW for photovoltaic, storage, and radiator mass; fixed spacecraft mass raises the total to 34-59 kg/kW. At m_kW ~ 40 kg/kW, a terrestrial infrastructure benchmark of 10-40 k\$/kW allows only 250-1000 \$/kg for the combined launch and spacecraft-build cost before space-to-ground communications, operations, utilization, and lifetime terms are included. That allowance is 3.4-13.5 times below the current public Falcon 9 dedicated low-Earth-orbit launch-price benchmark alone, before spacecraft build is included. Space-native preprocessing and communications-integrated edge compute are credible early regimes; terrestrial-user general compute closes only for low Earth-coupled communication intensity, high effective utilization, long delivered lifetime, and very low combined launch-plus-build cost.